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Sava Kranj vs Ilirija — 3. SNL - West 2020

Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
CANC
14:00
Ilirija
Ilirija
5/8/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sava Kranj17%
×Draw20%
Ilirija63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sava Kranj
1.06
Ilirija
2.22

Ilirija creates 109% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sava Kranj
1.33
Ilirija
2.78

allows per match

Sava Kranj
1.67
Ilirija
0.78

finishing

Sava Kranj+0.00on par
Ilirija+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sava Kranj ↓

Ilirija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sava Kranj or draw
37%
Sava Kranj or Ilirija
80%
Draw or Ilirija
83%

Winning margin

Sava Kranj wins by 2+
6%
Ilirija wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Sava Kranj 1+ goals
65%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
29%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
9%
Ilirija 1+ goals
89%
Ilirija 2+ goals
65%
Ilirija 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
21%
Ilirija (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sava Kranj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Ilirija away — creates 2.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sava Kranj attack 1.33 + Ilirija defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ilirija attack 2.78 + Sava Kranj defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sava Kranj scores more
17%
level
20%
Ilirija scores more
63%

Ilirija at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ilirija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sava Kranj vs Ilirija — Match Preview

Sava Kranj face Ilirija on May 8, 2021 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.