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Ilirija vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Ilirija
Ilirija
FT
2 – 0
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
4/28/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 10Športni park Ilirija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ilirija60%
×Draw19%
Sava Kranj21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilirija
2.40
Sava Kranj
1.35

Ilirija creates 78% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ilirija
3.30
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Ilirija
0.30
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Ilirija+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilirija ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ilirija or draw
79%
Ilirija or Sava Kranj
81%
Draw or Sava Kranj
40%

Winning margin

Ilirija wins by 2+
39%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ilirija 1+ goals
91%
Ilirija 2+ goals
69%
Ilirija 3+ goals
42%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
74%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
39%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ilirija (draw refunded)
74%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilirija at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilirija attack 3.30 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.40

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Ilirija defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ilirija scores more
60%
level
19%
Sava Kranj scores more
21%

Ilirija at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ilirija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilirija vs Sava Kranj

Ilirija beat Sava Kranj 2-0 in 3. SNL - West on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Športni park Ilirija in Ljubljana.