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Saudi Arabia W vs Malaysia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malaysia W
Malaysia W
9/18/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2King Fahd Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Saudi Arabia W57%
×Draw22%
Malaysia W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia W
1.90
Malaysia W
1.04

Saudi Arabia W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia W
1.71
Malaysia W
1.45

allows per match

Saudi Arabia W
0.63
Malaysia W
2.09

finishing

Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par
Malaysia W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia W ↓

Malaysia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia W or draw
80%
Saudi Arabia W or Malaysia W
78%
Draw or Malaysia W
43%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
33%
Malaysia W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
85%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
56%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
29%
Malaysia W 1+ goals
65%
Malaysia W 2+ goals
28%
Malaysia W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
74%
Malaysia W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Malaysia W away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.71 + Malaysia W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.90

Malaysia W attack 1.45 + Saudi Arabia W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Saudi Arabia W scores more
57%
level
22%
Malaysia W scores more
20%

Saudi Arabia W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Saudi Arabia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia W vs Malaysia W

Saudi Arabia W and Malaysia W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at King Fahd Sport City Stadium in Ta'if.