Malaysia W 0–0 Saudi Arabia W: Result & Stats

Malaysia W

FT

0 – 0

Saudi Arabia W

10/23/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Police Officers Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Malaysia W29%

×Draw33%

Saudi Arabia W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaysia WExpected goals in this matchSaudi Arabia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

0.96

Malaysia W

0.79

Saudi Arabia W

0.96

Saudi Arabia W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

0.50

creates per match

1.25

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Malaysia W

0.50

Saudi Arabia W

1.25

allows per match

Malaysia W

0.67

Saudi Arabia W

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaysia W+0.00on par

Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia W ↓

Saudi Arabia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–117%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Malaysia W or draw

62%

Malaysia W or Saudi Arabia W

67%

Draw or Saudi Arabia W

71%

Winning margin

Malaysia W wins by 2+

9%

Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Malaysia W 1+ goals

55%

Malaysia W 2+ goals

19%

Malaysia W 3+ goals

5%

Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals

62%

Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals

25%

Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Malaysia W (draw refunded)

43%

Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Saudi Arabia W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia W attack 0.50 + Saudi Arabia W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.79

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.25 + Malaysia W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malaysia W scores more

29%

level

33%

Saudi Arabia W scores more

38%

Saudi Arabia W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saudi Arabia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff