Saudi Arabia 1–0 Lebanon: Result & Stats

Saudi Arabia

FT

1 – 0

Lebanon

1/4/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Saudi Arabia40%

×Draw35%

Lebanon25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saudi ArabiaExpected goals in this matchLebanon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.66

Saudi Arabia

0.92

Lebanon

0.66

Saudi Arabia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 21 away

1.03

creates per match

0.48

0.83

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Saudi Arabia

1.03

Lebanon

0.48

allows per match

Saudi Arabia

0.83

Lebanon

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Lebanon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–114%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw

75%

Saudi Arabia or Lebanon

65%

Draw or Lebanon

60%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

15%

Lebanon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

60%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

23%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

7%

Lebanon 1+ goals

48%

Lebanon 2+ goals

14%

Lebanon 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

61%

Lebanon (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.48, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.03 + Lebanon defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Lebanon attack 0.48 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more

40%

level

35%

Lebanon scores more

25%

Saudi Arabia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff