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Lebanon vs Saudi Arabia — Asian Cup 2019

Lebanon
Lebanon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
1/12/2019Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lebanon26%
×Draw30%
Saudi Arabia44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebanon
0.83
Saudi Arabia
1.17

Saudi Arabia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lebanon
1.33
Saudi Arabia
1.33

allows per match

Lebanon
1.00
Saudi Arabia
0.33

finishing

Lebanon+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebanon ↓

Saudi Arabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lebanon or draw
56%
Lebanon or Saudi Arabia
70%
Draw or Saudi Arabia
74%

Winning margin

Lebanon wins by 2+
8%
Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lebanon 1+ goals
56%
Lebanon 2+ goals
20%
Lebanon 3+ goals
5%
Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
69%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
33%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lebanon (draw refunded)
37%
Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebanon at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Saudi Arabia away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebanon attack 1.33 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Saudi Arabia attack 1.33 + Lebanon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lebanon scores more
26%
level
30%
Saudi Arabia scores more
44%

Saudi Arabia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: Lebanon 0–2 Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia beat Lebanon 2-0 in Asian Cup on January 12, 2019.

The match was played at Al Maktoum Stadium in Dubai.