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Saturn Ramenskoye vs Sakhalin — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sakhalin
Sakhalin
4/16/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye59%
×Draw22%
Sakhalin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.92
Sakhalin
0.99

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 94% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 70 away

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.98
Sakhalin
0.77

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.21
Sakhalin
1.86

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par
Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Sakhalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw
81%
Saturn Ramenskoye or Sakhalin
78%
Draw or Sakhalin
41%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
35%
Sakhalin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
85%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
57%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
30%
Sakhalin 1+ goals
63%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
26%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
76%
Sakhalin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.98 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
59%
level
22%
Sakhalin scores more
19%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saturn Ramenskoye vs Sakhalin

Sakhalin beat Saturn Ramenskoye 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Saturn in Ramenskoe.