Sakhalin 1–1 Saturn Ramenskoye: Result & Stats

Sakhalin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Saturn Ramenskoye

10/29/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sakhalin43%

×Draw26%

Saturn Ramenskoye31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinExpected goals in this matchSaturn Ramenskoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.19

Sakhalin

1.43

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.19

Sakhalin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 60 away

1.29

creates per match

1.32

1.06

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sakhalin

1.29

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.32

allows per match

Sakhalin

1.06

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw

69%

Sakhalin or Saturn Ramenskoye

74%

Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye

57%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+

20%

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals

76%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

42%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

17%

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

70%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

33%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

58%

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.32 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sakhalin scores more

43%

level

26%

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

31%

Sakhalin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff