Saturn Ramenskoye 4–3 Baltika BFU: Result & Stats

Saturn Ramenskoye

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Baltika BFU

A. Zakirov 90+4'

S. Emelin 83'

D. Gribanov 45+2'

D. Borisov 37'

D. Nikitin 81'

V. Pospelov 73'

I. Savitskiy 70'

10/5/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Leon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye47%

×Draw23%

Baltika BFU29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saturn RamenskoyeExpected goals in this matchBaltika BFU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.36

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.78

Baltika BFU

1.36

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 53 away

2.14

creates per match

1.25

1.48

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

2.14

Baltika BFU

1.25

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.48

Baltika BFU

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Baltika BFU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw

71%

Saturn Ramenskoye or Baltika BFU

77%

Draw or Baltika BFU

53%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

26%

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

83%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

53%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

26%

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

74%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

39%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

62%

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 2.14 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

47%

level

23%

Baltika BFU scores more

29%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

D. Borisov

45+2'

D. Gribanov

46'

K. Malyarov← D. Begun

46'

V. Pospelov← I. Zazvonkin

46'

I. Weisbein← V. Malyshev

61'

N. Kamaev← Y. Petrovskiy

66'

S. Emelin← N. Sharkov

66'

D. Beskorovayny← D. Gribanov

69'

D. Nikitin← A. Babchuk

70'

I. Savitskiy

73'

V. Pospelov

76'

V. Lepekhin← V. Kirilenko

76'

N. Knyshev← D. Nikolaev

81'

D. Nikitin

83'

S. Emelin

90+4'

A. Zakirov

Saturn

Baltika

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Gribanov

Mazko

Manager: V. Korytko

66'▲S. Emelin←▼N. Sharkov

66'▲D. Beskorovayny←▼D. Gribanov

76'▲V. Lepekhin←▼V. Kirilenko

76'▲N. Knyshev←▼D. Nikolaev

Saturn Ramenskoye substitutes

EmelinBeskorovaynyLepekhinKnyshev

Manager: A. Koneev

46'▲K. Malyarov←▼D. Begun

46'▲V. Pospelov←▼I. Zazvonkin

46'▲I. Weisbein←▼V. Malyshev

61'▲N. Kamaev←▼Y. Petrovskiy

69'▲D. Nikitin←▼A. Babchuk

Baltika BFU substitutes

MalyarovPospelovWeisbeinKamaevNikitin

Second League - Group 2: Saturn Ramenskoye 4–3 Baltika BFU

Saturn Ramenskoye beat Baltika BFU 4-3 in Second League - Group 2 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: D. Borisov (37'), D. Gribanov (45+2'), I. Savitskiy (70'), V. Pospelov (73'), D. Nikitin (81'), S. Emelin (83'), A. Zakirov (90+4').

The match was played at Leon Arena in Ramenskoe.

Saturn Ramenskoye vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Saturn Ramenskoye 4–3 Baltika BFU