Baltika BFU 2–1 Saturn Ramenskoye: Result & Stats

Baltika BFU

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Saturn Ramenskoye

6/19/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Baltika BFU39%

×Draw26%

Saturn Ramenskoye35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baltika BFUExpected goals in this matchSaturn Ramenskoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Baltika BFU

1.39

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 29 away

1.22

creates per match

1.52

1.11

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Baltika BFU

1.22

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.52

allows per match

Baltika BFU

1.11

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw

65%

Baltika BFU or Saturn Ramenskoye

74%

Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye

61%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

18%

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

75%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

40%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

16%

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

73%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

38%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

52%

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.52 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baltika BFU scores more

39%

level

26%

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

35%

Baltika BFU at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff