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SAT Moreno vs Everton La Plata — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
FT
1 – 2
Everton La Plata
Everton La Plata
2/23/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 1Camping Moreno SATSAID

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SAT Moreno45%
×Draw29%
Everton La Plata26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAT Moreno
1.28
Everton La Plata
0.91

SAT Moreno creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

SAT Moreno
1.43
Everton La Plata
0.95

allows per match

SAT Moreno
0.86
Everton La Plata
1.14

finishing

SAT Moreno+0.00on par
Everton La Plata+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAT Moreno ↓

Everton La Plata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SAT Moreno or draw
74%
SAT Moreno or Everton La Plata
71%
Draw or Everton La Plata
55%

Winning margin

SAT Moreno wins by 2+
21%
Everton La Plata wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SAT Moreno 1+ goals
72%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
37%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
14%
Everton La Plata 1+ goals
60%
Everton La Plata 2+ goals
23%
Everton La Plata 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
63%
Everton La Plata (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAT Moreno at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Everton La Plata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAT Moreno attack 1.43 + Everton La Plata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Everton La Plata attack 0.95 + SAT Moreno defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SAT Moreno scores more
45%
level
29%
Everton La Plata scores more
26%

SAT Moreno at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SAT Moreno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SAT Moreno vs Everton La Plata

Everton La Plata beat SAT Moreno 2-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Camping Moreno SATSAID in Moreno, Provincia de Buenos Aires.