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Everton La Plata vs SAT Moreno — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Everton La Plata
Everton La Plata
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
7/22/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 1Estadio Oscar Pachi Funes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Everton La Plata30%
×Draw31%
SAT Moreno38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton La Plata
0.89
SAT Moreno
1.04

SAT Moreno creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Everton La Plata
1.00
SAT Moreno
0.95

allows per match

Everton La Plata
1.14
SAT Moreno
0.77

finishing

Everton La Plata+0.00on par
SAT Moreno+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton La Plata ↓

SAT Moreno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Everton La Plata or draw
62%
Everton La Plata or SAT Moreno
69%
Draw or SAT Moreno
70%

Winning margin

Everton La Plata wins by 2+
10%
SAT Moreno wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Everton La Plata 1+ goals
59%
Everton La Plata 2+ goals
22%
Everton La Plata 3+ goals
6%
SAT Moreno 1+ goals
65%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
28%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Everton La Plata (draw refunded)
44%
SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton La Plata at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

SAT Moreno away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton La Plata attack 1.00 + SAT Moreno defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

SAT Moreno attack 0.95 + Everton La Plata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Everton La Plata scores more
30%
level
31%
SAT Moreno scores more
38%

SAT Moreno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SAT Moreno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Everton La Plata vs SAT Moreno

SAT Moreno beat Everton La Plata 2-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on July 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Oscar Pachi Funes in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.