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SAT Moreno vs Deportivo Camioneros — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
3/22/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 5Camping Moreno SATSAID

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SAT Moreno28%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Camioneros46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAT Moreno
1.14
Deportivo Camioneros
1.54

Deportivo Camioneros creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

SAT Moreno
1.43
Deportivo Camioneros
2.23

allows per match

SAT Moreno
0.86
Deportivo Camioneros
0.85

finishing

SAT Moreno+0.00on par
Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAT Moreno ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SAT Moreno or draw
54%
SAT Moreno or Deportivo Camioneros
75%
Draw or Deportivo Camioneros
72%

Winning margin

SAT Moreno wins by 2+
11%
Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SAT Moreno 1+ goals
68%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
32%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
38%
Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAT Moreno at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAT Moreno attack 1.43 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.14

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.23 + SAT Moreno defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SAT Moreno scores more
28%
level
25%
Deportivo Camioneros scores more
46%

Deportivo Camioneros at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: SAT Moreno 2–6 Deportivo Camioneros

Deportivo Camioneros beat SAT Moreno 6-2 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Camping Moreno SATSAID in Moreno, Provincia de Buenos Aires.