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Deportivo Camioneros vs SAT Moreno — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
8/16/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 5Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros55%
×Draw25%
SAT Moreno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
1.56
SAT Moreno
0.83

Deportivo Camioneros creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
2.36
SAT Moreno
0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.71
SAT Moreno
0.77

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
SAT Moreno+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

SAT Moreno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
80%
Deportivo Camioneros or SAT Moreno
75%
Draw or SAT Moreno
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
29%
SAT Moreno wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
21%
SAT Moreno 1+ goals
56%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
20%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
73%
SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

SAT Moreno away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.36 + SAT Moreno defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

SAT Moreno attack 0.95 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
55%
level
25%
SAT Moreno scores more
20%

Deportivo Camioneros at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Camioneros vs SAT Moreno

Deportivo Camioneros and SAT Moreno drew 1-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano in Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires.