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SAT Moreno vs Barrancas UMET — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Barrancas UMET
Barrancas UMET
3/9/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 3Camping Moreno SATSAID

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SAT Moreno44%
×Draw29%
Barrancas UMET27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAT Moreno
1.24
Barrancas UMET
0.91

SAT Moreno creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

SAT Moreno
1.43
Barrancas UMET
0.95

allows per match

SAT Moreno
0.86
Barrancas UMET
1.05

finishing

SAT Moreno+0.00on par
Barrancas UMET+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAT Moreno ↓

Barrancas UMET →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SAT Moreno or draw
73%
SAT Moreno or Barrancas UMET
71%
Draw or Barrancas UMET
56%

Winning margin

SAT Moreno wins by 2+
20%
Barrancas UMET wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SAT Moreno 1+ goals
71%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
35%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
13%
Barrancas UMET 1+ goals
60%
Barrancas UMET 2+ goals
23%
Barrancas UMET 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
62%
Barrancas UMET (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAT Moreno at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Barrancas UMET away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAT Moreno attack 1.43 + Barrancas UMET defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.24

Barrancas UMET attack 0.95 + SAT Moreno defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SAT Moreno scores more
44%
level
29%
Barrancas UMET scores more
27%

SAT Moreno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SAT Moreno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: SAT Moreno 2–0 Barrancas UMET

SAT Moreno beat Barrancas UMET 2-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Camping Moreno SATSAID in Moreno, Provincia de Buenos Aires.