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Barrancas UMET vs SAT Moreno — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Barrancas UMET
Barrancas UMET
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
8/5/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 3Estadio de Excursionistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Barrancas UMET31%
×Draw33%
SAT Moreno37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrancas UMET
0.84
SAT Moreno
0.95

SAT Moreno creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Barrancas UMET
0.91
SAT Moreno
0.95

allows per match

Barrancas UMET
0.95
SAT Moreno
0.77

finishing

Barrancas UMET+0.00on par
SAT Moreno+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrancas UMET ↓

SAT Moreno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Barrancas UMET or draw
63%
Barrancas UMET or SAT Moreno
67%
Draw or SAT Moreno
69%

Winning margin

Barrancas UMET wins by 2+
10%
SAT Moreno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barrancas UMET 1+ goals
57%
Barrancas UMET 2+ goals
21%
Barrancas UMET 3+ goals
5%
SAT Moreno 1+ goals
61%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
25%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barrancas UMET (draw refunded)
46%
SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrancas UMET at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

SAT Moreno away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrancas UMET attack 0.91 + SAT Moreno defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

SAT Moreno attack 0.95 + Barrancas UMET defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barrancas UMET scores more
31%
level
33%
SAT Moreno scores more
37%

SAT Moreno at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SAT Moreno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barrancas UMET vs SAT Moreno

Barrancas UMET beat SAT Moreno 1-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Excursionistas in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.