Sassuolo 0–2 Lazio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lazio

Luis Alberto 35'

Felipe Anderson 28'

10/21/2023

Serie A · Round 9MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sassuolo33%

×Draw27%

Lazio40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.28

Sassuolo

1.14

Lazio

1.28

Lazio creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.02

creates per match

1.08

1.48

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.02

Lazio

1.08

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.48

Lazio

1.26

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more

Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

60%

Sassuolo or Lazio

73%

Draw or Lazio

67%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Lazio wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

68%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

32%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

11%

Lazio 1+ goals

72%

Lazio 2+ goals

37%

Lazio 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

45%

Lazio (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Lazio attack 1.08 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sassuolo scores more

33%

level

27%

Lazio scores more

40%

Lazio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Luis Alberto

Lazio · M

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Ciro Immobile

28'

Felipe Anderson↳ V. Castellanos

31'

32'

35'

44'

46'

46'

K. Thorstvedt← U. Račić

46'

M. Erlić← Ruan Tressoldi

53'

D. Cataldi← N. Rovella

53'

M. Zaccagni← Pedro

61'

G. Defrel← Samu Castillejo

65'

Ivan ProvedelRed card cancelled

67'

M. Vecino← M. Guendouzi

75'

Luis Alberto

77'

Danilo Cataldi

79'

D. Kamada← Luis Alberto

80'

C. Immobile← V. Castellanos

88'

S. Mulattieri← A. Pinamonti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloLazio

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots18

0.52Expected Goals (xG)2.27

5Corners7

6Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots18

2On Target6

4Off Target10

3Blocked2

3Inside Box13

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

518Total Passes490

433Accurate Passes420

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards5

0Offsides4