Lazio 1–1 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lazio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sassuolo

M. Zaccagni 60'

M. Viti 66'

5/26/2024

Serie A · Round 38Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lazio44%

×Draw25%

Sassuolo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.23

Lazio

1.52

Sassuolo

1.23

Lazio creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

1.37

creates per match

1.16

1.29

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lazio

1.37

Sassuolo

1.16

allows per match

Lazio

1.29

Sassuolo

1.66

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par

Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

69%

Lazio or Sassuolo

75%

Draw or Sassuolo

56%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

22%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

78%

Lazio 2+ goals

45%

Lazio 3+ goals

20%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

71%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

35%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

59%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lazio scores more

44%

level

25%

Sassuolo scores more

31%

Lazio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Romagnoli

Lazio · D

7.7

Match Events

19'

Cristian Volpato

53'

Felipe Anderson← M. Vecino

53'

M. Guendouzi← N. Rovella

60'

M. Zaccagni

65'

Daichi Kamada

66'

M. Viti

71'

M. Lazzari← L. Pellegrini

71'

C. Immobile← V. Castellanos

75'

A. Laurienté← C. Volpato

75'

J. Toljan← J. Doig

82'

Mattéo Guendouzi

83'

U. Račić← L. Lipani

83'

A. Pinamonti← S. Mulattieri

88'

Mattia Zaccagni

88'

M. Pedersen← F. Missori

90'

Pedro← M. Zaccagni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioSassuolo

Overview

69%Possession31%

8Total Shots8

1.03Expected Goals (xG)1.11

5Corners3

15Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots8

6On Target3

0Off Target4

2Blocked1

7Inside Box5

1Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

714Total Passes308

633Accurate Passes241

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.78Goals Prevented0.78

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0

Serie A: Lazio 1–1 Sassuolo

Lazio and Sassuolo drew 1-1 in Serie A on May 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Zaccagni (60'), M. Viti (66').

Lazio controlled possession (69%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.

Lazio vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Lazio 1–1 Sassuolo