Sassuolo 2–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sassuolo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cesena

F. Russo 65'

J. Antiste 34'

M. Curto 53'

8/24/2024

Serie B · Round 2MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sassuolo59%

×Draw23%

Cesena19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.91

Sassuolo

1.82

Cesena

0.91

Sassuolo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 39 away

2.26

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sassuolo

2.26

Cesena

0.92

allows per match

Sassuolo

0.89

Cesena

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

81%

Sassuolo or Cesena

77%

Draw or Cesena

41%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

34%

Cesena wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

84%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

54%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

27%

Cesena 1+ goals

60%

Cesena 2+ goals

23%

Cesena 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

76%

Cesena (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Cesena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 2.26 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cesena attack 0.92 + Sassuolo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sassuolo scores more

59%

level

23%

Cesena scores more

19%

Sassuolo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Antiste

Sassuolo · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

Marco Curto

34'

J. Antiste↳ S. Mulattieri

36'

Cas Odenthal

46'

M. Lovato← Y. Paz

53'

M. Curto↳ D. Donnarumma

59'

F. Russo← N. Bajrami

65'

F. Russo↳ J. Antiste

72'

M. Antonucci← G. Calò

72'

E. Adamo← J. Ceesay

74'

Janis Antiste

78'

Pedro Obiang← F. Caligara

79'

F. Missori← J. Antiste

79'

M. Piacentini← M. Curto

80'

Tommaso Berti

84'

L. Lipani← J. Kumi

85'

M. Francesconi← T. Berti

85'

R. Celia← D. Donnarumma

90+4'

Daniel Boloca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloCesena

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots23

3Corners9

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots23

6On Target6

4Off Target9

3Blocked8

8Inside Box14

5Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

350Total Passes589

270Accurate Passes506

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1