Cesena 0–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo

A. Laurienté 57', 24'

4/25/2025

Serie B · Round 35Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cesena31%

×Draw25%

Sassuolo45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.58

Cesena

1.27

Sassuolo

1.58

Sassuolo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

1.44

creates per match

1.84

1.31

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Cesena

1.44

Sassuolo

1.84

allows per match

Cesena

1.31

Sassuolo

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

55%

Cesena or Sassuolo

75%

Draw or Sassuolo

69%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

13%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

72%

Cesena 2+ goals

36%

Cesena 3+ goals

14%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

79%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

47%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

41%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.44 + Sassuolo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sassuolo attack 1.84 + Cesena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cesena scores more

31%

level

25%

Sassuolo scores more

45%

Sassuolo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

A. Laurienté

Sassuolo · F

9.2

Match Events

24'

A. Laurienté

43'

Matteo Francesconi

46'

E. Adamo← G. Prestia

46'

E. Tavşan← M. Francesconi

57'

A. Laurienté↳ T. Muharemović

62'

F. Russo← J. Ceesay

62'

M. Antonucci← A. La Gumina

72'

L. Skjellerup← L. Moro

72'

L. Mazzitelli← Pedro Obiang

72'

J. Doig← E. Pieragnolo

73'

N. Pierini← A. Laurienté

77'

S. Bastoni← D. Šarić

82'

L. Lipani← A. Ghion

83'

Emanuele Adamo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaSassuolo

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots14

8Corners3

17Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots14

1On Target9

5Off Target5

6Blocked0

7Inside Box11

5Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

449Total Passes547

396Accurate Passes487

88%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0