Sasa 0–3 Besa Dobërdoll: Result & Stats

Sasa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Besa Dobërdoll

3/5/2024

Second League · Round 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sasa29%

×Draw25%

Besa Dobërdoll46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SasaExpected goals in this matchBesa Dobërdoll

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.54

Sasa

1.16

Besa Dobërdoll

1.54

Besa Dobërdoll creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

1.48

creates per match

1.67

1.41

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Sasa

1.48

Besa Dobërdoll

1.67

allows per match

Sasa

1.41

Besa Dobërdoll

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sasa or draw

54%

Sasa or Besa Dobërdoll

75%

Draw or Besa Dobërdoll

71%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+

11%

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals

69%

Sasa 2+ goals

32%

Sasa 3+ goals

11%

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

79%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

45%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)

38%

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.16

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sasa scores more

29%

level

25%

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

46%

Besa Dobërdoll at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff