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Besa Dobërdoll vs Sasa — Second League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sasa
Sasa
2/18/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll62%
×Draw21%
Sasa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.94
Sasa
0.88

Besa Dobërdoll creates 120% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 82 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
2.17
Sasa
1.26

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
0.50
Sasa
1.70

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Sasa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Sasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
84%
Besa Dobërdoll or Sasa
79%
Draw or Sasa
38%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
37%
Sasa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
86%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
58%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
30%
Sasa 1+ goals
59%
Sasa 2+ goals
22%
Sasa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
79%
Sasa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Sasa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Sasa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sasa attack 1.26 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
62%
level
21%
Sasa scores more
16%

Besa Dobërdoll at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Dobërdoll vs Sasa

Besa Dobërdoll beat Sasa 2-0 in Second League on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vrapčište in Vrapchishte.