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Sarriana vs Noia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sarriana
Sarriana
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Noia
Noia
4/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Municipal De Ribela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sarriana48%
×Draw25%
Noia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarriana
1.59
Noia
1.12

Sarriana creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sarriana
1.68
Noia
0.92

allows per match

Sarriana
1.32
Noia
1.50

finishing

Sarriana+0.00on par
Noia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarriana ↓

Noia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sarriana or draw
73%
Sarriana or Noia
75%
Draw or Noia
52%

Winning margin

Sarriana wins by 2+
25%
Noia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sarriana 1+ goals
80%
Sarriana 2+ goals
47%
Sarriana 3+ goals
21%
Noia 1+ goals
67%
Noia 2+ goals
31%
Noia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sarriana (draw refunded)
64%
Noia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarriana at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Noia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarriana attack 1.68 + Noia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Noia attack 0.92 + Sarriana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sarriana scores more
48%
level
25%
Noia scores more
27%

Sarriana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sarriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sarriana 1 – 3 Noia

Noia beat Sarriana 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Ribela in Sarria.