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Noia vs Sarriana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Noia
Noia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sarriana
Sarriana
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Noia30%
×Draw27%
Sarriana44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noia
1.10
Sarriana
1.39

Sarriana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Noia
1.08
Sarriana
1.53

allows per match

Noia
1.24
Sarriana
1.12

finishing

Noia+0.00on par
Sarriana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noia ↓

Sarriana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Noia or draw
56%
Noia or Sarriana
73%
Draw or Sarriana
70%

Winning margin

Noia wins by 2+
12%
Sarriana wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Noia 1+ goals
67%
Noia 2+ goals
30%
Noia 3+ goals
10%
Sarriana 1+ goals
75%
Sarriana 2+ goals
40%
Sarriana 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Noia (draw refunded)
41%
Sarriana (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noia at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Sarriana away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noia attack 1.08 + Sarriana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sarriana attack 1.53 + Noia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Noia scores more
30%
level
27%
Sarriana scores more
44%

Sarriana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Noia 2 – 1 Sarriana

Noia beat Sarriana 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Lázaro in Noia.