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Sarriana vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sarriana
Sarriana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Municipal De Ribela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sarriana41%
×Draw27%
Celta de Vigo III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarriana
1.33
Celta de Vigo III
1.16

Sarriana creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sarriana
1.68
Celta de Vigo III
1.00

allows per match

Sarriana
1.32
Celta de Vigo III
0.98

finishing

Sarriana+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarriana ↓

Celta de Vigo III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sarriana or draw
68%
Sarriana or Celta de Vigo III
73%
Draw or Celta de Vigo III
59%

Winning margin

Sarriana wins by 2+
19%
Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sarriana 1+ goals
74%
Sarriana 2+ goals
38%
Sarriana 3+ goals
15%
Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
69%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
32%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sarriana (draw refunded)
56%
Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarriana at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarriana attack 1.68 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Sarriana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sarriana scores more
41%
level
27%
Celta de Vigo III scores more
32%

Sarriana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sarriana 1 – 1 Celta de Vigo III

Sarriana and Celta de Vigo III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Ribela in Sarria.