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Celta de Vigo III vs Sarriana — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sarriana
Sarriana
5/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundCampo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Celta de Vigo III49%
×Draw26%
Sarriana25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo III
1.50
Sarriana
1.00

Celta de Vigo III creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo III
2.00
Sarriana
1.00

allows per match

Celta de Vigo III
1.00
Sarriana
1.00

finishing

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par
Sarriana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo III ↓

Sarriana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo III or draw
75%
Celta de Vigo III or Sarriana
74%
Draw or Sarriana
51%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
25%
Sarriana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
78%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
44%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
19%
Sarriana 1+ goals
63%
Sarriana 2+ goals
26%
Sarriana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
66%
Sarriana (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo III at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Sarriana away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo III attack 2.00 + Sarriana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sarriana attack 1.00 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Celta de Vigo III scores more
49%
level
26%
Sarriana scores more
25%

Celta de Vigo III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo III vs Sarriana

Celta de Vigo III beat Sarriana 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.