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Sarrabus Ogliastra vs San Marzano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Marzano
San Marzano
P. Ladu 90+7', 45'
4/21/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 32Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra45%
×Draw27%
San Marzano28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.39
San Marzano
1.05

Sarrabus Ogliastra creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.49
San Marzano
0.71

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.40
San Marzano
1.29

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par
San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

San Marzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw
72%
Sarrabus Ogliastra or San Marzano
73%
Draw or San Marzano
55%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
21%
San Marzano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
75%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
40%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
16%
San Marzano 1+ goals
65%
San Marzano 2+ goals
28%
San Marzano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
61%
San Marzano (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
45%
level
27%
San Marzano scores more
28%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
P. Ladu
90+7'
P. Ladu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2 – 0 San Marzano

Sarrabus Ogliastra beat San Marzano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 21, 2024.

Goals: P. Ladu (45', 90+7').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Is Arranas in Tertenia.