San Marzano 2–2 Sarrabus Ogliastra: Result & Stats

San Marzano

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sarrabus Ogliastra

12/10/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marzano51%

×Draw25%

Sarrabus Ogliastra24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MarzanoExpected goals in this matchSarrabus Ogliastra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

San Marzano

1.56

Sarrabus Ogliastra

0.99

San Marzano creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

1.41

creates per match

1.16

0.82

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

San Marzano

1.41

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.16

allows per match

San Marzano

0.82

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marzano+0.00on par

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marzano ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Marzano or draw

76%

San Marzano or Sarrabus Ogliastra

75%

Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra

49%

Winning margin

San Marzano wins by 2+

26%

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

San Marzano 1+ goals

79%

San Marzano 2+ goals

46%

San Marzano 3+ goals

21%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

63%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

26%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

San Marzano (draw refunded)

68%

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marzano attack 1.41 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + San Marzano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Marzano scores more

51%

level

25%

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

24%

San Marzano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Marzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff