Sarrabus Ogliastra 0–0 Lupa Roma: Result & Stats

Sarrabus Ogliastra

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lupa Roma

4/16/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 31Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra38%

×Draw28%

Lupa Roma33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarrabus OgliastraExpected goals in this matchLupa Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.11

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.21

Lupa Roma

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.49

creates per match

0.82

1.40

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.49

Lupa Roma

0.82

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.40

Lupa Roma

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

Lupa Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw

67%

Sarrabus Ogliastra or Lupa Roma

72%

Draw or Lupa Roma

62%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

16%

Lupa Roma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

70%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

34%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

12%

Lupa Roma 1+ goals

67%

Lupa Roma 2+ goals

30%

Lupa Roma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

53%

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Lupa Roma away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + Lupa Roma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lupa Roma attack 0.82 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

38%

level

28%

Lupa Roma scores more

33%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff