Lupa Roma 3–1 Sarrabus Ogliastra: Result & Stats

Lupa Roma

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sarrabus Ogliastra

D. Sabatini 82'

L. Traditi 7'

S. Derbali 2' (OG)

M. Mancosu 75'

12/4/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 14Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma55%

×Draw24%

Sarrabus Ogliastra21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lupa RomaExpected goals in this matchSarrabus Ogliastra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.96

Lupa Roma

1.73

Sarrabus Ogliastra

0.96

Lupa Roma creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

1.76

creates per match

1.16

0.76

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Lupa Roma

1.76

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.16

allows per match

Lupa Roma

0.76

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw

79%

Lupa Roma or Sarrabus Ogliastra

76%

Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra

45%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+

31%

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals

82%

Lupa Roma 2+ goals

52%

Lupa Roma 3+ goals

25%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

62%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

25%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)

73%

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lupa Roma scores more

55%

level

24%

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

21%

Lupa Roma at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. DerbaliOwn goal

7'

L. Traditi

75'

M. Mancosu

82'

D. Sabatini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff