Sarrabus Ogliastra 1–1 Latte Dolce: Result & Stats

Sarrabus Ogliastra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Latte Dolce

1/14/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 19Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra44%

×Draw25%

Latte Dolce31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarrabus OgliastraExpected goals in this matchLatte Dolce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.54

Latte Dolce

1.25

Sarrabus Ogliastra creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 82 away

1.49

creates per match

1.10

1.40

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.49

Latte Dolce

1.10

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.40

Latte Dolce

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

Latte Dolce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw

69%

Sarrabus Ogliastra or Latte Dolce

75%

Draw or Latte Dolce

56%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

22%

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

79%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

45%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

20%

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

71%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

36%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

59%

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

44%

level

25%

Latte Dolce scores more

31%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff