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Latte Dolce vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1/6/2026Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Latte Dolce46%
×Draw25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latte Dolce
1.56
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.18

Latte Dolce creates 32% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 68 away

creates per match

Latte Dolce
1.41
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Latte Dolce
1.20
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw
71%
Latte Dolce or Sarrabus Ogliastra
75%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
54%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+
23%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals
79%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
46%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
21%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
69%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
33%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
62%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Latte Dolce scores more
46%
level
25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
29%

Latte Dolce at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Latte Dolce vs Sarrabus Ogliastra

Latte Dolce beat Sarrabus Ogliastra 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 6, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce in Sassari.