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Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Angri Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Angri Calcio
Angri Calcio
2/19/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 24Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra41%
×Draw25%
Angri Calcio34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.54
Angri Calcio
1.38

Sarrabus Ogliastra creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.49
Angri Calcio
1.35

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.40
Angri Calcio
1.59

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par
Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

Angri Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw
66%
Sarrabus Ogliastra or Angri Calcio
75%
Draw or Angri Calcio
59%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
20%
Angri Calcio wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
79%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
45%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
20%
Angri Calcio 1+ goals
75%
Angri Calcio 2+ goals
40%
Angri Calcio 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
55%
Angri Calcio (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Angri Calcio away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + Angri Calcio defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Angri Calcio attack 1.35 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
41%
level
25%
Angri Calcio scores more
34%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Sarrabus Ogliastra 2–1 Angri Calcio

Sarrabus Ogliastra beat Angri Calcio 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Is Arranas in Tertenia.