Angri Calcio 2–1 Sarrabus Ogliastra: Result & Stats

Angri Calcio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sarrabus Ogliastra

10/16/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Stadio Pasquale Novi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Angri Calcio38%

×Draw26%

Sarrabus Ogliastra36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angri CalcioExpected goals in this matchSarrabus Ogliastra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.28

Angri Calcio

1.32

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.94

creates per match

1.16

1.41

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Angri Calcio

0.94

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.16

allows per match

Angri Calcio

1.41

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angri Calcio ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Angri Calcio or draw

64%

Angri Calcio or Sarrabus Ogliastra

74%

Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra

62%

Winning margin

Angri Calcio wins by 2+

17%

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Angri Calcio 1+ goals

73%

Angri Calcio 2+ goals

38%

Angri Calcio 3+ goals

15%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

72%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

37%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)

51%

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angri Calcio at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angri Calcio attack 0.94 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Angri Calcio defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Angri Calcio scores more

38%

level

26%

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

36%

Angri Calcio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Angri Calcio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff