Sarpsborg 08 II 0–0 Flint: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 II

FT

0 – 0

Flint

4/8/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 1Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 II55%

×Draw22%

Flint23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 IIExpected goals in this matchFlint

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.00

Flint

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

1.31

1.15

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.00

Flint

1.31

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.15

Flint

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 II ↓

Flint →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 II or draw

77%

Sarpsborg 08 II or Flint

78%

Draw or Flint

45%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

32%

Flint wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

86%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

59%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

32%

Flint 1+ goals

71%

Flint 2+ goals

35%

Flint 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

70%

Flint (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Flint away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 2.00 + Flint defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Flint attack 1.31 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

55%

level

22%

Flint scores more

23%

Sarpsborg 08 II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff