Flint 5–2 Sarpsborg 08 II: Result & Stats

Flint

FT

5 – 2

Sarpsborg 08 II

9/23/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 22Flint ESSO Arena A KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint48%

×Draw20%

Sarpsborg 08 II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlintExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.92

Flint

2.38

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.92

Flint creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.08

creates per match

1.92

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Flint

2.08

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.92

allows per match

Flint

1.92

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flint+0.00on par

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Flint or draw

68%

Flint or Sarpsborg 08 II

80%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II

52%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+

29%

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals

91%

Flint 2+ goals

68%

Flint 3+ goals

42%

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

85%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

57%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)

60%

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.08 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.38

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.92 + Flint defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Flint scores more

48%

level

20%

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

32%

Flint at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Flint will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff