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Sarpsborg 08 II vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Sarpsborg 08 II
Sarpsborg 08 II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
6/7/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 10Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 II62%
×Draw19%
Åssiden IF19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarpsborg 08 II
2.42
Åssiden IF
1.30

Sarpsborg 08 II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 II
2.00
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 II
1.15
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 II ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 II or draw
81%
Sarpsborg 08 II or Åssiden IF
81%
Draw or Åssiden IF
38%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+
40%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals
91%
Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals
69%
Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals
43%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
73%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
37%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)
76%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 2.00 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.42

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more
62%
level
19%
Åssiden IF scores more
19%

Sarpsborg 08 II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Sarpsborg 08 II 3–1 Åssiden IF

Sarpsborg 08 II beat Åssiden IF 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.