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Åssiden IF vs Sarpsborg 08 II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sarpsborg 08 II
Sarpsborg 08 II
10/7/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 24Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF42%
×Draw20%
Sarpsborg 08 II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
2.33
Sarpsborg 08 II
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
Sarpsborg 08 II
1.92

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
Sarpsborg 08 II
2.69

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
62%
Åssiden IF or Sarpsborg 08 II
80%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II
58%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
24%
Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
90%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
67%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
41%
Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals
89%
Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals
65%
Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
52%
Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.33

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.92 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
42%
level
20%
Sarpsborg 08 II scores more
38%

Åssiden IF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Åssiden IF 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 II

Åssiden IF beat Sarpsborg 08 II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 7, 2024.

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.