Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Tromso: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tromso

Ieltsin Camoes 74'

5/25/2025

Eliteserien · Round 8Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF41%

×Draw24%

Tromso35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.45

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.59

Tromso

1.45

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.57

creates per match

1.39

1.51

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.57

Tromso

1.39

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.51

Tromso

1.61

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

65%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

59%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

20%

Tromso wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

80%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

47%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

21%

Tromso 1+ goals

77%

Tromso 2+ goals

42%

Tromso 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

54%

Tromso (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 32 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.61 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tromso attack 1.39 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

41%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

35%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

E. Wichne

Sarpsborg 08 FF · D

7.9

Match Events

28'

Martin Haheim-Elveseter

39'

Alagie Sanyang

45+1'

David Edvardsson

46'

P. Reinhardsen← M. Haheim-Elveseter

62'

S. Christiansen← S. Gudjohnsen

64'

K. Antonsen← A. Mikkelsen

64'

Ieltsin Camoes← D. Edvardsson

70'

Harald Tangen

74'

Ieltsin Camoes↳ V. Erlien

78'

Y. Paintsil← R. Norheim

80'

M. Odegaard← M. Jeahze

80'

J. Berget← V. E. Halvorsen

85'

D. Braut← V. Erlien

90'

M. Vestergaard← A. Sher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgTromso

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots7

1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.98

2Corners2

8Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box0

Passing

49%Possession51%

507Total Passes534

432Accurate Passes454

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Tromso

Tromso beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 in Eliteserien on May 25, 2025.

Goals: Ieltsin Camoes (74').

Tromso controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Tromso