Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Tromso: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tromso

S. Guðjohnsen 90+2' (pen)

M. Koch 30'

L. Nordås 65'

12/1/2024

Eliteserien · Round 30Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF42%

×Draw24%

Tromso34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.42

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.60

Tromso

1.42

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.57

creates per match

1.36

1.48

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.57

Tromso

1.36

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.48

Tromso

1.62

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.16scores less

Tromso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

66%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

58%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

21%

Tromso wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

80%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

47%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

22%

Tromso 1+ goals

76%

Tromso 2+ goals

41%

Tromso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

55%

Tromso (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.48 · 34 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Tromso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tromso attack 1.36 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

42%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

34%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Koch

Sarpsborg 08 FF · D

8.2

Match Events

30'

M. Koch↳ S. Johansen

31'

Jakob Haugaard

59'

L. Nordås← J. Romsaas

65'

L. Nordås↳ R. Norheim

73'

D. Job← F. Carstensen

73'

S. Guðjohnsen← H. Tangen

81'

J. Gregersen← S. Johansen

81'

M. Håheim-Elveseter← J. Inge Berget

90+3'

S. Roguski← S. Ørjasæter

90+3'

H. Larsen← J. Hjertø-Dahl

90+3'

L. Nilsen← R. Norheim

90+3'

F. Christensen← V. Erlien

90+2'

S. GuðjohnsenPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgTromso

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots4

1.85Expected Goals (xG)0.88

7Corners2

8Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots4

5On Target1

4Off Target3

5Blocked0

6Inside Box3

8Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

664Total Passes440

584Accurate Passes376

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4