Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

K. Opseth 63'

5/7/2022

Eliteserien · Round 5Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF54%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.22

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.95

ODD Ballklubb

1.22

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 60% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 18 away

1.67

creates per match

0.98

1.46

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.67

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.46

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.10scores less

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

76%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

46%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

31%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

86%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

58%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

31%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

34%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

70%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 40 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.67 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.95

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

54%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Salétros

Sarpsborg 08 FF · M

8.9

Match Events

45+4'

Guillermo Molins

45'

Espen Ruud

60'

S. Aas← M. Ingebrigtsen

63'

Steffen Hagen

63'

K. Opseth↳ A. Salétros

71'

F. Kastrati← M. Jevtović

78'

M. Ødegaard← J. Horn

78'

S. Skålevik← K. Opseth

79'

M. Høyland← G. Molins

82'

J. Thomassen← J. Soltvedt

83'

O. Halvorsen← E. Wichne

83'

I. Mesík← F. Jørgensen

83'

John Kitolano← C. Wallem

83'

A. Stensrud← J. Baccay

90+4'

Steffen Hagen

90+4'

Steffen Hagen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgODD

Overview

54%Possession46%

24Total Shots13

7Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots13

9On Target4

9Off Target4

6Blocked5

16Inside Box10

8Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

509Total Passes436

427Accurate Passes328

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0