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ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
M. Jevtović 25'
8/20/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 19Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

ODD Ballklubb34%
×Draw24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.66

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.55
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.67

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.08on par
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.10scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
58%
ODD Ballklubb or Sarpsborg 08 FF
76%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
66%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
16%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
77%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
43%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
19%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
81%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
49%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
34%
level
24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
42%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
L. WahlstedtODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · G
7.9

Match Events

25'
M. Jevtović↳ M. Ingebrigtsen
57'
S. Skålevik← M. Maigaard
57'
M. Høyland← A. Salétros
57'
A. Konte← V. Torp
69'
I. Mesík← S. Hagen
71'
G. Molins← S. Tibbling
77'
S. Aas← M. Jevtović
78'
Syver Aas
81'
O. Halvorsen← E. Wichne
83'
Leopold Wahlstedt
84'
Vebjørn Hoff
87'
J. Baccay← G. Rólantsson
88'
M. Lekven← V. Hoff

Possession

40%ODD

Shots

10ODD

Pass accuracy

48%ODD

Statistics

ODDSarpsborg
Overview
40%Possession60%
10Total Shots14
2Corners7
5Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots14
1On Target4
6Off Target6
3Blocked4
7Inside Box11
3Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
365Total Passes547
282Accurate Passes450
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
5Fouls8
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

ODD Ballklubb beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 in Eliteserien on August 20, 2022.

Goals: M. Jevtović (25').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.