ODD Ballklubb 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

M. Ingebrigtsen 29' (pen)

S. Christiansen 51'

8/11/2024

Eliteserien · Round 18Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb36%

×Draw23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.66

ODD Ballklubb

1.53

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 31 away

1.35

creates per match

1.77

1.55

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.77

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.71

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

59%

ODD Ballklubb or Sarpsborg 08 FF

77%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

64%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

17%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

78%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

45%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

20%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

81%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

49%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

46%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.77 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

36%

level

23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

41%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Johansen

Sarpsborg 08 FF · M

8.2

Match Events

28'

Menno Koch

29'

M. IngebrigtsenPenalty

49'

Filip Rønningen Jørgensen

51'

S. Christiansen↳ A. Hiim

65'

T. Børven← O. Midtskogen

73'

E. Wichne← S. Christiansen

75'

T. Miettinen← S. Owusu

76'

83'

84'

84'

84'

S. Martinsson Ngouali← S. Johansen

90+2'

Tony Miettinen

90+4'

N. Sandberg← F. Carstensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDSarpsborg

Overview

32%Possession68%

4Total Shots22

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.89

5Corners10

14Fouls16

Shots

4Total Shots22

3On Target5

0Off Target9

1Blocked8

2Inside Box13

2Outside Box9

Passing

32%Possession68%

255Total Passes551

183Accurate Passes488

72%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2