Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

1 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

5/2/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF58%

×Draw20%

ODD Ballklubb22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.29

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.21

ODD Ballklubb

1.29

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 71% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

2.30

creates per match

1.44

1.15

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.30

ODD Ballklubb

1.44

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.15

ODD Ballklubb

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.00on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

78%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or ODD Ballklubb

80%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

42%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

36%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

89%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

65%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

72%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

73%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 2.30 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.21

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.44 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

58%

level

20%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

22%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb