Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

J. Thomassen 48'

E. Ruud 52', 14'

9/16/2018

Eliteserien · Round 22Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF54%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.94

ODD Ballklubb

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 58% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 18 away

1.66

creates per match

0.98

1.47

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.66

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.47

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.06on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

76%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

46%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

31%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

86%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

58%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

30%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

71%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

35%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

69%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.47 · 42 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.66 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

54%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Ruud

ODD Ballklubb · D

9.2

Match Events

10'

Jørgen Horn

14'

E. Ruud↳ V. Hoff

35'

Jone Samuelsen

39'

K. Larsen← J. Tveita

46'

T. Børven← J. Samuelsen

48'

J. Thomassen↳ T. Heintz

52'

E. Ruud

54'

H. Singh← M. Lund Nielsen

71'

F. Nordkvelle← M. Broberg

80'

J. Tamm← J. Horn

89'

A. Nordvik← B. Njie

90'

Joonas Tamm

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgODD

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots11

10Corners6

14Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots11

5On Target4

5Off Target5

1Blocked2

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

512Total Passes313

404Accurate Passes215

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2