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Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
10/25/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF37%
×Draw26%
KFUM Oslo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.33
KFUM Oslo
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.50
KFUM Oslo
1.14

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.53
KFUM Oslo
1.17

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.05on par
KFUM Oslo-0.14scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw
63%
Sarpsborg 08 FF or KFUM Oslo
74%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
63%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
17%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
74%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
38%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
15%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
74%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
38%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
50%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.53 · 11 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.50 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

KFUM Oslo attack 1.14 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
37%
level
26%
KFUM Oslo scores more
37%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 KFUM Oslo

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.