KFUM Oslo 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

11/3/2024

Eliteserien · Round 27KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

KFUM Oslo40%

×Draw24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.44

KFUM Oslo

1.56

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.21

creates per match

1.76

1.12

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.21

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.12

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.92

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.38scores less

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

65%

KFUM Oslo or Sarpsborg 08 FF

76%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

60%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

20%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

79%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

46%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

21%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

76%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

42%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

53%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.21 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

40%

level

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

35%

KFUM Oslo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff