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Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
CANC
11:00
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
2/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF67%
×Draw18%
KFUM Oslo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.38
KFUM Oslo
1.04

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 129% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.33
KFUM Oslo
1.00

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.07
KFUM Oslo
2.44

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.00on par
KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw
85%
Sarpsborg 08 FF or KFUM Oslo
82%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
33%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
44%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
91%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
68%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
42%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
65%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
28%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
82%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 2.33 + KFUM Oslo defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.38

KFUM Oslo attack 1.00 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
67%
level
18%
KFUM Oslo scores more
15%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo — Match Preview

Sarpsborg 08 FF face KFUM Oslo on February 23, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sarpsborg 08 FF host KFUM Oslo at Sarpsborg Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.