Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Haugesund

D. Karlsbakk 84' (pen), 75', 46'

S. Innvaer 6'

7/6/2025

Eliteserien · Round 12Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF49%

×Draw23%

Haugesund27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.27

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.78

Haugesund

1.27

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 40% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.02

1.52

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.50

Haugesund

1.02

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.52

Haugesund

2.06

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.12scores less

Haugesund-0.02on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

73%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

51%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

27%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

83%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

53%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

26%

Haugesund 1+ goals

72%

Haugesund 2+ goals

36%

Haugesund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

64%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.50 + Haugesund defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Haugesund attack 1.02 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

49%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

27%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Karlsbakk

Sarpsborg 08 FF · F

9.3

Match Events

6'

S. Innvaer

24'

T. Nyhammer← P. Bizoza

34'

C. Niyukuri← V. Solheim

46'

S. Diarra← I. Seone

46'

D. Karlsbakk

66'

N. Sandberg← V. E. Halvorsen

66'

M. Vestergaard← A. Sanyang

66'

J. Berget← H. Tangen

75'

Bruno Leite

75'

D. Karlsbakk↳ J. Berget

84'

Mohanad JeahzePenalty confirmed

84'

D. KarlsbakkPenalty

87'

M. Hope← S. Innvaer

87'

M. Alvsaker← M. Konradsen

89'

N. Skuseth← F. Tebo Uchenna

90+1'

Jo Inge Berget

90'

M. Haheim-Elveseter← S. Orjasaeter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgHaugesund

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots12

1.69Expected Goals (xG)0.97

19Corners1

11Fouls19

Shots

19Total Shots12

6On Target6

5Off Target5

8Blocked1

15Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

484Total Passes321

407Accurate Passes247

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls19

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1