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Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
E. Rohd 90'
I. Seone 76'
H. V. Karlsen 51' (pen)
J. Berget 90'
P. Reinhardsen 84'
8/10/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 17Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Haugesund28%
×Draw22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.94

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.13
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

Haugesund
2.13
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.66

finishing

Haugesund+0.54scores more
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.33scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
50%
Haugesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF
78%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
72%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
12%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
75%
Haugesund 2+ goals
41%
Haugesund 3+ goals
17%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
86%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
58%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
36%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.66 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.13 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Haugesund defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Haugesund scores more
28%
level
22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
50%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. BergetSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF · F
8.2

Match Events

5'
Ilir Kukleci
51'
H. V. KarlsenPenalty
56'
Eirik Wichne
66'
Bruno Leite
66'
I. Seone← H. V. Karlsen
72'
P. Reinhardsen← H. Tangen
72'
V. E. Halvorsen← S. Sorli
72'
D. Job← A. Hiim
74'
E. Rohd← S. Innvaer
75'
M. Koskela← B. Leite
76'
I. Seone↳ J. Torkildsen
79'
J. Berget← D. Karlsbakk
79'
S. Gudjohnsen← H. Bruseth
84'
P. Reinhardsen
88'
C. Niyukuri← M. Hope
90+7'
Parfait Bizoza
90+4'
Mamour Ndiaye
90'
E. Rohd↳ C. Niyukuri
90'
J. Berget

Possession

39%Haugesund

Shots

7Haugesund

Pass accuracy

48%Haugesund

Statistics

HaugesundSarpsborg
Overview
39%Possession61%
7Total Shots29
1.38Expected Goals (xG)3.13
2Corners11
16Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots29
5On Target6
1Off Target9
1Blocked14
4Inside Box22
3Outside Box7
Passing
39%Possession61%
341Total Passes520
261Accurate Passes433
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Eliteserien: Haugesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF

Haugesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 in Eliteserien on August 10, 2025.

Goals: H. V. Karlsen (51' pen), I. Seone (76'), P. Reinhardsen (84'), E. Rohd (90'), J. Berget (90').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (61%) and registered 29 shots to 7.

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.